CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN ARABLE CROPS FARMING IN SOUTH-WEST NIGERIA: ENVIRONMENTAL COST IMPLICATIONS AND EFFECTIVENESS OF THE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Abstract

ABSTRACT The environmental cost of climate variability poses significant challenges to agricultural productivity and economic stability, particularly in regions heavily reliant on arable crop farming. This research assessed the environmental cost implications and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies to climate variability in arable crops farming in the study area. Secondary data from geo-information pool and primarily sourced data were collected. These were used for examining the implications of temperature, rainfall variations and patterns, and undertaking relevant economic analyses. The multi-stage sampling procedure was used to draw a total sample of 392 arable crop farmers in both Oyo and Ogun States in South-West Nigeria. The study used descriptive statistics and Dichotomous-Choice Contingent Valuation Method (DC-CVM) that terminated into the logit regression model. The DC-CVM was used to determine the economic valuation of the environmental implications of climate variability. In addition, production function-based valuation technique was used to determine the respective influences and implications of climate drivers and other socioeconomic factors on farming profitability. The geo-information data analyzed recorded a higher climate variability index in Ogun (0.79) than Oyo State (0.29), indicating that climate is more stable in Oyo than Ogun State. The DC-CVM projected an annual economic burden of ₦1,751,809,382.78 per farming season, indicating the amount the farmers are willing to pay (WTP) to mitigate the effects of climate variability. The coefficient of bid (p< 0.01) and occupation (p< 0.05) were negative and had the likelihood of significantly influencing farmers' WTP, while household size had the likelihood of positively and significantly (p< 0.01) influencing WTP. The Return On Investment (ROI) of arable crop farmers was N40.04. The multiple regression analysis showed that the farmers' age significantly (p< 0.05) influenced the ROI negatively, while marital status (p< 0.05), access to extension service (p< 0.10) and the adoption of intercropping (p<0.01) and agroforestry (p< 0.01) influenced the ROI positively. In addition, the negative relationship observed between climate variability index and the ROI indicated that climate variability reduces the profitability of farmers. This statistically insignificance can be explained by the temporal nature of climate variability as compared to what operates in the long term climate change. Among the available climate adaptation methods adopted by the farmers, agroforestry seemed most plausibly effective, though adoption by sampled farmers looked less feasible due to the seemingly high average cost of adoption totaling ₦76,414.29/planting season. Other strategies being utilized by the farmers at various levels are enhanced irrigation, improved seed varieties and intercropping. However, ongoing obstacles concerning practicality, cost, and information sharing highlight the necessity of focused policy measures to support farmers' ability to adopt and expand climate-smart farming techniques. It is therefore imperative for policy makers and relevant stakeholders, to make sufficient funds available in support of effective climate adaptation plans.