SEASG LITYMDVOLATILITYOF PRICES O£FRESH FRUITS IN SOUTHWESTNIGERIA
| dc.contributor.author | ADENIYI OmotumiTaiwoA | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-01-12T12:21:00Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-01-12T12:21:00Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021-09-11 | |
| dc.description | AThesissubmitted1totheDepartmentofAgriculturalEconomicsandFarm Management, College of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, FederalUniversiJ ofAgriculture Abeokuta,fortheAward of theDegree of Doctorof Philosophy in Agricultural Economics (Agricultural Marketing and International Trade) | |
| dc.description.abstract | ABSTRACT Seasonality ofagricultural commodities andtheir consequentprice volatility isinevitable and problematic if enoi nous and unpredictable.This study assessed produce seasonality and price volatility ofselected fresh fruits inmarkets intheSouthwest zone of Nigeria. A multistagesamplingprocedurewasusedtoselectrespondentsfromAla,Ifon,Ilara, Odopetu,Akesan,Araromi,Bodija,andOdo-Obamarketsinthestudyarea.Monthly retail prices ofplantain, banana, pineapple, and orange, from January 2003 to December 2015, wereobtainedfromOiiJoandOyoStates'AgriculturalDevelopmentProgram offices. Data were analyzed usingdescriptive statistics (mean and percentages), Gini Coefficient, AugmentedDickeyFNler(ADF),PhillipPerron(PP)analysis,Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin(KPSS),GeneralizedAutoRegressiveConditionalHeteroscedasticity (GARCH)andthe, Au*.t›RegressiveConditionalHeteroscedasticity (ARCH).Findings revealedthatthere were morefemale(74.2%) thanmale(25.8%) marketersintheselected marketsand92.8% of“be respondentswere married.Gini coefficientsshowedthat the ruralpineapple tmde wasthenearest tomonopolymarket (GR=0.73)whiletheurban plantainmarketwastheclosesttoperfectcompetition(G=0.17).Banana(GR—0.66,Gu =0.58)andorange(Ga=0.62,Gu=0.51)marketsreflectedamoderateoligopolysituation withahigh(XY=0.417)and(XY=0.381)degree ofsellerinequalityandmarket concentrationrespectively.Fromthe two-tailedt-testofdifferenceoftwoat te0.05,the mean retail prices in the urban markets (N102.73 -N1,161.36) were higher (p<0.05) than inrural markets (N82.80 -H715.91). ADF unit roots analysis revealedthat prices of the selectedfreshfruitsPit)werestationary(ADF=-12.4456to-6.4380)atlevelsPitI(0) andADF=-16.8126 to-8.6026) attheirfirstdiffereiices and P;iI(1), p<0.05. ThePhillip Perronunitrootanalysisrevealedthatpricesofallthefreshfruit(P;i)werestationary(PP =-12.4465to-6.499270)atlevelsP;-I(0)and(PP=-147.6859to-19.73897)andattheir firstdifferencesandkgI(1),(p<0.05).Johansen'sTraceand Maximum Eigenvaluefor pricesatP;-I(1)withr<1revealedthatthemarketshadastablelong-runrelationship (p<0.05).manger Casualty testshowed unidirectionalcausality (p=0.9486) among most selected marketpairsacrosstheStates.Rural marketsoccupied theleadership position for all theprices (R2<â)thereby informing prices inthe urban markets: Vector Error CorrectionModelestimationshowedahigh(R2= 0.720473)degreeoffitforonlyrural bananamarketaccountingfor72.0%ofthevariationintheshort-runpricechange(p<0.01) with (13.0%) price shocks (of rural banana market) corrected immediately.ARCH (o) = (0.909672 to -0.054322) and GARCH (§) = (0.991986 to -0.011384) coefficients for all the fresh fruit price series indicated the persistence of volatility shocks. Furthermore, the average rural (H = 23.5013) fresh fruit price volatility was highly influenced(72.0%) by those of the previous months and average urban (A= 35.2 594) fresh fruit price volatility was highly influenced (99.0%) by that of the earlier months. In conclusion, the prices of theselectedgreenfruitsgenerallyfacedaveryhighlevelofpricevolatility.Market reforms should focus on the rural (lead) markets to increase marketing efficiency. | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | ADENIYIOmotumiTaiwo | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://ir.funaab.edu.ng/handle/123456789/540 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.title | SEASG LITYMDVOLATILITYOF PRICES O£FRESH FRUITS IN SOUTHWESTNIGERIA | |
| dc.type | Thesis |